| 刘梦元,方芳,杨富,台瑞,胡泽兰.肝移植术后多重耐药菌感染风险预测模型的验证[J].上海护理,2019,19(7): |
| 肝移植术后多重耐药菌感染风险预测模型的验证 |
| Evaluation of A Risk Prediction Model for Multi-drug Resistant Organisms Infection after Liver Transplantation |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 肝移植 多重耐药菌 感染 风险预测模型 验证 |
| 英文关键词:liver transplantation multi-drug resistant organisms infection risk prediction model evaluation |
| 基金项目:上海市重要薄弱学科建设项目(2015ZB0304)。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 验证肝移植术后多重耐药菌感染风险预测模型(MDROLT模型)的有效性和准确性。方法 采用前瞻性队列研究对2016年10月至2017年9月于上海市某两所三甲医院行肝移植手术患者的临床资料进行收集和分析,根据MDROLT模型对纳入患者进行评分,分为低危险组(0~3分)、中危险组(3.1~6分)、高危险组(>6分)。比较模型预测感染率和患者实际感染率。分别采用Hosmer-Lemeshow 检验、O/E和ROC曲线下面积对该模型预测多重耐药菌感染风险的符合程度和判别效度进行评价。结果 两肝移植中心共纳入114例患者,多重耐药菌实际感染率为24.56%,而模型预测感染率为20.2%,O/E值为0.822,H-L检验的P值为0.944,C-统计量为0.757。结论 MDROLT模型的整体符合程度及判别效度均表现良好,具有一定的临床推广性。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To evaluate the validity and accuracy of the risk prediction model for Multi-drug resistant organisms Infection after liver transplantation (MDROLT model). Methods A cohort study was conducted to collect and analyze the clinical data of liver transplant recipients from the First People"s Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University and Renji Hospital of Affiliated Shanghai Jiao Tong University from October 2016 to September 2017. According to the model we divided the patients into three groups as into low risk group (0-3), moderate risk group (4-6), high risk group (7-15). Then according to whether patients with multiple drug-resistant organisms infections during hospitalization, compare the predicted infection rate and the actual infection rate. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test and O / E values were used to evaluate the compliance of the model in predicting the risk of infection. The C-statistics (area under the ROC curve) were used to evaluate the discriminant validity of the model in predicting the risk of infection. Results According to the inclusive criteria, totally 114 patients from first people"s hospital and Renji hospital were collected in our study. The actual infection rate of multiple drug-resistant bacteria was 24.56% in 114 liver transplant recipients, while the model predictive infection rate was 20.2%, the O / E value was 0.822, and the P value of Hosmer-Lemeshow good-of-fit test’s P value was 0.944. Conclusion The calibration and discrimination of risk prediction models for multidrug-resistant organisms infection after liver transplantation all performed well. The results show |
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